[Establishment and analysis of an early prognosis model of patients with acute kidney injury in intensive care unit].

OBJECTIVE: To establish a predictive model for the progression of acute kidney injury (AKI) to stage 3 AKI (renal failure) in the intensive care unit (ICU), so as to assist physicians to make early and timely decisions on whether to intervene in advance. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted. Thirty-eight patients with AKI admitted to the intensive care medicine of the Third People's Hospital of Henan Province from January 2018 to May 2023 were enrolled. Patient data including acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) upon admission, serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), daily urine output during hospitalization, and the timing of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) intervention were recorded. Based on clinically collected pathological data, standardized creatinine value ratio mean polynomial fitting models were established as the first criterion for judging the progression to stage 3 AKI after data cleansing, screening, and normalization. Additionally, standardized creatinine value ratio index fitting models were established as the second criterion for predicting progression to stage 3 AKI. RESULTS: A total of 38 AKI patients were included, including 25 males and 13 females. The average age was (58.45±12.94) years old. The APACHE II score was 24.13±4.17 at admission. The intervention node was (4.42±0.95) days. Using a dual regression model approach, statistical modeling was performed with a relatively small sample size of statistical data samples, yielding a scatter index non-linear regression model for standardized creatinine value ratio data relative to day "n", with y = 1.246 2x1.164 9 and an R2 of 0.860 1, indicating reasonable statistical fitting. Additionally, a quadratic non-linear regression model was obtained for the mean standardized creatinine value ratio relative to day "n", with y = -0.260 6x2+3.010 7x-1.612 and an R2 of 0.998 9, indicating an excellent statistical fit. For example, using a baseline SCr value of 66 µmol/L for a healthy individual, the dual regression model predicted that the patient would progress to stage 3 AKI within 3-5 days. This prediction was consistent when applied to other early intervention renal injury patients. CONCLUSIONS: The established model effectively predicts the time interval of the progression of AKI to stage 3 AKI (renal failure), which assist intensive care physicians to intervene AKI as early as possible to prevent disease progression.

Serum expression levels of Mb and NT-proBNP and NF-κB expression in neutrophils in patients with MODS and the clinical significance.

This study was designed to investigate the expression of myoglobin (Mb), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in serum and the expression of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) in neutrophils in patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) and the clinical significance. From July 2014 to December 2015, 314 patients with severe disease were selected during their stays at the emergency ward of the Third People's Provincial Hospital of Henan Province (Zhengzhou, China). Seventy patients with MODS were selected as MODS group, 108 patients with single organ or system injury were selected as the key prevention group, and 136 patients without obvious organ or systemic injury were selected as prevention group. Serum levels of Mb and NT-proBNP were measured by ELISA. Neutrophils were isolated by flow cytometry, and the activity of NF-κB in neutrophils of MODS patients was measured by electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA). At 1, 7 and 14 days after treatment, the levels of Mb, NT-proBNP and NF-κB in the three groups were significantly reduced compared with pretreatment levels (p<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that serum Mb, NT-proBNP and NF-κB activity were positively correlated with the progression of the disease (r=0.809, 0.785 and 0.833, p=0.012, 0.025 and 0.004), and negatively correlated with the treatment time (r=-0.773, -0.734 and -0.815; p=0.033, 0.041 and 0.078). Mb, NT-proBNP and NF-κB may be involved in the pathogenesis and development of MODS, and may play an important role in the prevention and treatment of MODS.